international trade

Have precious metals reached their top? The meteoric climb in precious metals has experienced a significant pullback in the last 24 hours.  First, one wonders what caused this event, and secondly, do we believe this is a much needed correction, or a pause in a market that will continue to climb?  

The U.S. Trade Deficit: Tariffs vs. Borrowing Less. When people talk about America’s trade deficit, tariffs often come up as the “solution.” Put a tax on imports, make them more expensive, and the deficit will shrink, right? The problem is that tariffs do not actually fix the underlying imbalance. They just shift trade patterns, raise consumer costs, and invite retaliation.

The deeper reason the U.S. runs such persistent trade deficits is its habit of borrowing heavily. Here is how the cycle works:

1. The U.S. government runs budget deficits and issues lots of Treasuries.
2. Foreign investors, companies, and central banks buy those Treasuries, sending capital into the U.S.
3. This extra demand for dollars pushes the dollar up in value.
4. A strong dollar makes imports cheaper and exports less competitive.
5. The result is a larger trade deficit.

In other words, America’s borrowing habit and its trade deficit are two sides of the same coin.

If the U.S. reduced its borrowing, capital inflows would ease, the dollar would weaken, and the trade deficit would naturally shrink. Exports would rise and imports would fall, without tariffs, trade wars, or artificial distortions.

That is why many economists argue that reducing borrowing is far better than raising tariffs. It works with global market forces rather than against them. Tariffs can protect certain industries in the short run, but they do not touch the root cause. Borrowing less does.

Of course, the catch is political. Borrowing less means either cutting government spending or raising taxes, both of which are unpopular. Tariffs, on the other hand, are easy to sell as “protecting American jobs.” But if we are serious about addressing the trade deficit, the smarter path is to look at the borrowing side, not just the border.

What if Tariffs Are a Good Thing? I was surprised to find that this podcast made me wonder whether tariffs would actually be really good for the US economy and, more importantly, for midd-class American people.

With all the raging about how awful Trump is, it's been very hard to find any thoughtful analysis about which parts of his policies might actually be beneficial for Americans.

In this podcast, Ross Douthat (NYT) interviews Oren Cass, the Founder and Chief Economist at American Compass, a conservative think tank. Oren makes a really good case for the following:

• we've been living through a period of mostly-unchecked globalization
• because GDP has been rising, economists generally argue that globalization is good
• HOWEVER, Oren provides compelling reasons why GDP growth is not a sufficient indicator of the health of the economy.  He cites things like increasing income inequality and the overall reduction in purchasing power when you factor things like households now having to have two full-time incomes to buy the same basket of things

The opportunity that tariffs provide is to buffer globalization and proactively re-shape the American economy to be more self-reliant, more inclusive and more balanced (geographically, industry-wise, etc).  For example, Oren notes that globalization has been driving wealth toward tech & financial hubs, like NYC, Austin, San Francisco, while middle America has been largely stagnant. With more manufacturing, job distribution could be more equitably spread across the country.

What I liked most about this podcast were a few things:

• it provides a thoughtful challenge to the mainstream chatter that "tariffs are bad!" and "Trump is ruining our economy!"
• the basis for tariffs is actually to improve the well-being of middle Americans who are not participating in the white collar tech and financial services boom
• that it challenges the assumptions that an unfettered globalized world economy is what works best.  Maybe it isn't?

What if Tariffs Are a Good Thing? I was surprised to find that this podcast made me wonder whether tariffs would actually be really good for the US economy and, more importantly, for midd-class American people.

With all the raging about how awful Trump is, it's been very hard to find any thoughtful analysis about which parts of his policies might actually be beneficial for Americans.

In this podcast, Ross Douthat (NYT) interviews Oren Cass, the Founder and Chief Economist at American Compass, a conservative think tank. Oren makes a really good case for the following:

• we've been living through a period of mostly-unchecked globalization
• because GDP has been rising, economists generally argue that globalization is good
• HOWEVER, Oren provides compelling reasons why GDP growth is not a sufficient indicator of the health of the economy.  He cites things like increasing income inequality and the overall reduction in purchasing power when you factor things like households now having to have two full-time incomes to buy the same basket of things

The opportunity that tariffs provide is to buffer globalization and proactively re-shape the American economy to be more self-reliant, more inclusive and more balanced (geographically, industry-wise, etc).  For example, Oren notes that globalization has been driving wealth toward tech & financial hubs, like NYC, Austin, San Francisco, while middle America has been largely stagnant. With more manufacturing, job distribution could be more equitably spread across the country.

What I liked most about this podcast were a few things:

• it provides a thoughtful challenge to the mainstream chatter that "tariffs are bad!" and "Trump is ruining our economy!"
• the basis for tariffs is actually to improve the well-being of middle Americans who are not participating in the white collar tech and financial services boom
• that it challenges the assumptions that an unfettered globalized world economy is what works best.  Maybe it isn't?